How Much Do You Trust the Market?

Every now and then, I get a call or an email that goes something like this: “Someone on the news says the market is going to crash in September or October. Should I be worried?”

It’s a fair question, and I’m always glad when someone reaches out to ask. In fact, I get this one often enough that I figured it’s worth addressing with all of you – because let’s be honest, we’ve all had those “uh-oh” moments after hearing some dramatic financial forecast.

So, let’s get right to it.

Can I Predict the Market?

Nope. I can’t. And neither can that person on TV, no matter how confidently they say it. As much as I’d love to offer certainty, predicting what millions of investors around the globe will do at any given time is…well, impossible.

The truth is, the market could go down in the fall. Or it might not. If it drops, that ‘expert’ will likely write a book, go on a victory tour, and collect some applause. If it doesn’t, they’ll go quiet until the next headline-grabbing prediction comes around.

Rather than focusing on whether the prediction is right, a more helpful question is this: Do you trust the market over the long term?

Because that’s the real issue.

The Long View Matters

If you believe that, over time, the market tends to go up (despite its short-term ups and downs), then it makes sense to invest accordingly. It means building a long-term portfolio that reflects your goals, your risk tolerance, and your time horizon.

On the other hand, if you don’t trust that the market will grow over time, then it’s worth asking yourself whether investing in the market makes sense for you at all. There are certainly other ways to grow and protect wealth – real estate, fixed income, or even staying ultra-conservative with cash – but those approaches come with trade-offs, too.

Asking Better Questions

Lately, I’ve been deep in a personal project – one I’m doing not just for myself, but for you. I’ve been researching the financial markets, not just how they work, but how people try (and often fail) to predict them. I’m asking questions like:

• How accurate are market forecasts, really?
• Do stock-pickers or market-timers have any real consistency?
• Should investors pay more for someone who claims to be smarter than the market?
• What should our clients actually do with all of this?

I’m digging into these questions because, frankly, I think they matter. And I think you deserve honest, thoughtful answers. Not hype. Not fear. Just clarity.

What Should You Do?

The best course of action, in my view, is to prepare for both possibilities: market highs and market lows. Build a plan that secures your essential income with reliable sources. Make sure your retirement isn’t riding the rollercoaster of day-to-day headlines. Then, position yourself to benefit when the market does well.

In other words, stop trying to guess the next move and start planning for the long game.

The markets can’t be tamed, but with the right plan, they can be trusted.